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A synthesis of the recent econometrics literature","year":"2023"},{"key":"WorldBank_OpenData","source":"web","title":"World Bank Open Data"}],"run":{"backend":"claude_code","events":[{"at":"2026-10-13T21:22:00Z","backend":"claude_code","cli":"claude","cli_version":"2.1.296 (Claude Code)","event":"backend_identity","model":"sonnet","segment":0},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:22:00Z","event":"method_sources","keys":["callaway2021difference","goodmanbacon2021difference","sun2021estimating","dechaisemartin2020twoway","borusyak2024revisiting","roth2023trending","roth2022pretest","rambachan2023credible"],"segment":0},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:29:12Z","event":"awaiting_review","segment":0,"stage":"preregister","step":"preregister"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:31:13Z","backend":"claude_code","cli":"claude","cli_version":"2.1.296 (Claude Code)","event":"backend_identity","model":"sonnet","segment":1},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:33:08Z","event":"awaiting_review","segment":1,"stage":"preregister","step":"preregister"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","backend":"claude_code","cli":"claude","cli_version":"2.1.296 (Claude Code)","event":"backend_identity","model":"sonnet","segment":2},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","event":"preregistration_frozen","file":"preregistration.md","frozen_at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","hypotheses":[{"id":"H1","statement":"main Abolition raises GER; effect is positive on impact (year 0–1) and persistent for ≥5 years."},{"id":"H2","statement":"over-age The GER effect exceeds the NER effect (ΔGER − ΔNER > 0), i.e., part of the surge is over-age enrolment."},{"id":"H3","statement":"initial level Effects are larger where pre-reform GER was low (more room to grow, more fee-constrained households). Expect negative interaction with baseline GER."},{"id":"H4","statement":"gender Girls' GER rises by more than boys' (higher price sensitivity of girls' schooling), shrinking the gender gap."},{"id":"H5","statement":"capitation grants Effects are larger and more persistent where abolition was accompanied by a per-pupil capitation grant that replaced fee revenue; without compensation, schools reintroduced informal charges and the effect fades."},{"id":"H6","statement":"quality dilution Pupil–teacher ratios rise and primary completion / survival rises by less than enrolment (mechanism check, not main outcome)."}],"plan_files":{"did_design.json":"736ba789a2127148a5b3f28c2cb101e45b8ff03aabc1ec18b0f6d4c094f9aadd","identification_spec.json":"8c9eee65856dc0b9b73f1aa411c1fc4f549e5701f24513c662ecb2abfdc7323e"},"segment":2,"sha256":"0739668ec62727170804ff8b2040f14b3f730316073cb8e7e3c697fa8ad9ed5c","step":"preregister"}],"exported":"20261015","governance":"full","internal_review":{"combined":"weighted average","reviewers":{"data_reviewer":5,"identification_reviewer":4,"methods_reviewer":5,"technical_reviewer":5,"writing_reviewer":6},"rounds":1,"scale":10,"score":4.86,"weights":{"data_reviewer":1.25,"identification_reviewer":1.5,"methods_reviewer":1,"technical_reviewer":1,"writing_reviewer":0.75}},"mode":"single_pass","models":[{"backend":"claude_code","model":"sonnet"}],"outcome":{"at":"2026-10-13T21:46:03Z","status":"completed"},"template":"policy-evaluation"},"schema":"e2er-dossier/0.6","study":{"title":"Did abolishing primary-school fees in sub-Saharan African countries (staggere..."},"workflow":[{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:24:28Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/literature_review.md","sha256":"3aa9ed5a086b657065831100638d9d646e80b4d37e5fa22031aeeb399c69d9b1"},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"literature_scanner","started":"2026-10-13T21:22:22Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:24:47Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"1c96818e5a57e7f00571fed5f885366531fa12b46d46bbd6db9a32aa9e99c21e"},"outputs":[{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"1c96818e5a57e7f00571fed5f885366531fa12b46d46bbd6db9a32aa9e99c21e"},{"file":"design/identification_spec.json","sha256":"8c9eee65856dc0b9b73f1aa411c1fc4f549e5701f24513c662ecb2abfdc7323e"},{"file":"design/did_design.json","sha256":"2e2d4664b46533c41ee143f8297527c4516c069b117a126571c71d4bcd6749b4"}],"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-10-13T21:22:22Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:25:16Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/paper_plan.md","sha256":"d69883c08399faab3841dab6a15eb20d0d764c70cf81b6724a796f51c5011463"},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"idea_developer","started":"2026-10-13T21:22:22Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:26:20Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"data/data_dictionary.json","sha256":"73111405e0b5449c874b6fd3d25cc5d2d5e7217b594a2b8c0aad74d00d1caf8d"},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"data_architect","started":"2026-10-13T21:25:16Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:28:24Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"data/data_summary.md","sha256":"8d75bf0060fbee2008e8b143bf2702d951e8ed7e36bcb52f4e968c3e6c472edd"},"outputs":[{"file":"data/data_summary.md","sha256":"8d75bf0060fbee2008e8b143bf2702d951e8ed7e36bcb52f4e968c3e6c472edd"},{"file":"results/summary_statistics.json","sha256":"2ce5d065ec5228d2c87ffe0b2d60bd9acdd2deb4f519fa2bdc0da7ab6c8ff03f"},{"file":"results/figure_spec.json","sha256":"eab020598de1f9c35b353d5f744086258a4086e81839659460567cd57b1c1613"}],"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-10-13T21:26:20Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:28:24Z","check":"did_design","detail":"(a) no unit is treated inside the panel: there is nothing to evaluate; units in the treatment table without outcome data: DJI","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":0,"type":"check"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:29:12Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"69ef38ce1e30a862aa02ad1837c60a5479597a86f00e3e0ea6f4f71b2879cdc4"},"outputs":[{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"69ef38ce1e30a862aa02ad1837c60a5479597a86f00e3e0ea6f4f71b2879cdc4"},{"file":"design/identification_spec.json","sha256":"8c9eee65856dc0b9b73f1aa411c1fc4f549e5701f24513c662ecb2abfdc7323e","unchanged":true},{"file":"design/did_design.json","sha256":"198811ea481f72d037c4a551a5519a962e35793bed114f04c238717c7db6cfc6"}],"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-10-13T21:28:24Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:29:12Z","check":"did_design","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":0,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:29:12Z","check":"preregistration","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":0,"type":"check"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-10-13T21:31:13Z","phase":"initial","remark":"The researcher checked the abolition years against published abstracts (OpenAlex, 2026-10-13). Fill fee_abolition_dates.first_year for these eight countries, set verification_status to 'published source', and record the source in a new column source_doi (or the reference where no DOI exists): MWI 1994 (Chimombo 2009, Compare, doi 10.1080/03050060902921003: 'Since the introduction of Free Primary Education in 1994/95'); UGA 1997 (Kan and Klasen 2020, Review of Development Economics, doi 10.1111/rode.12725: 'After the abolishment of school fees in 1997'); TZA 2002 (Lindsjo 2017, International Journal of Educational Development: 'In 2001, the first Primary Education Development Plan declared that the ... fee was to be abolished'; coded at the first fee-free school year, January 2002, with alt_year 2001); KEN 2003 (Oketch and Somerset 2010, CREATE Pathways to Access 37: 'the 2003 Free Primary Education programme'); GHA 2005 (Pajibo and Tamanja 2017, doi 10.20448/journal.522.2017.31.53.63: 'the Capitation Grant Scheme in 2005'); LSO 2000, phased from grade 1 (doi 10.1080/09751122.2013.11890101: 'progressively introduced Free Primary Education in 2000'); RWA 2003 (doi 10.1155/2012/396019: 'In 2003, Rwanda introduced free education'); ZMB 2002 ('Universal Free Primary Education Policy implemented in 2002', a 2020 concept paper without DOI; confidence low). All other countries keep first_year empty: they are comparison units not known to have abolished fees, not verified never-abolishers. End the analysis panel wb_primary_enrolment in 2010 (the last cohort plus five years) so that later abolitions do not enter the comparison group, and record that rule in data_summary.md.","segment":0,"step":"preregister","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:32:37Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"data/data_summary.md","sha256":"a9b41e10f0f0c5e116d4a613761a5b33587e1e92984529ed521fc6827fd4aae8"},"outputs":[{"file":"data/data_summary.md","sha256":"a9b41e10f0f0c5e116d4a613761a5b33587e1e92984529ed521fc6827fd4aae8"},{"file":"results/summary_statistics.json","sha256":"47f6330c829091003f1af3d583056067a4215b7632fe8637c86a74417a2dc09d"},{"file":"results/figure_spec.json","sha256":"bdb6cf710a2f4dfe0be63fb82f5ca056ee7487915f03baa13c7d4069054a079a"}],"phase":"initial","segment":1,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-10-13T21:31:13Z","remark":"The researcher checked the abolition years against published abstracts (OpenAlex, 2026-10-13). Fill fee_abolition_dates.first_year for these eight countries, set verification_status to 'published source', and record the source in a new column source_doi (or the reference where no DOI exists): MWI 1994 (Chimombo 2009, Compare, doi 10.1080/03050060902921003: 'Since the introduction of Free Primary Education in 1994/95'); UGA 1997 (Kan and Klasen 2020, Review of Development Economics, doi 10.1111/rode.12725: 'After the abolishment of school fees in 1997'); TZA 2002 (Lindsjo 2017, International Journal of Educational Development: 'In 2001, the first Primary Education Development Plan declared that the ... fee was to be abolished'; coded at the first fee-free school year, January 2002, with alt_year 2001); KEN 2003 (Oketch and Somerset 2010, CREATE Pathways to Access 37: 'the 2003 Free Primary Education programme'); GHA 2005 (Pajibo and Tamanja 2017, doi 10.20448/journal.522.2017.31.53.63: 'the Capitation Grant Scheme in 2005'); LSO 2000, phased from grade 1 (doi 10.1080/09751122.2013.11890101: 'progressively introduced Free Primary Education in 2000'); RWA 2003 (doi 10.1155/2012/396019: 'In 2003, Rwanda introduced free education'); ZMB 2002 ('Universal Free Primary Education Policy implemented in 2002', a 2020 concept paper without DOI; confidence low). All other countries keep first_year empty: they are comparison units not known to have abolished fees, not verified never-abolishers. End the analysis panel wb_primary_enrolment in 2010 (the last cohort plus five years) so that later abolitions do not enter the comparison group, and record that rule in data_summary.md."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-10-13T21:31:13Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:32:37Z","check":"did_design","detail":"(a) no unit is treated inside the panel: there is nothing to evaluate; units in the treatment table without outcome data: DJI, SSD","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":1,"type":"check"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:33:08Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"2636c65ba3d0a2d0bbf5eb3e87d49d8667b60c26daa7fdc35e1aa9387a8c4cf9"},"outputs":[{"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","sha256":"2636c65ba3d0a2d0bbf5eb3e87d49d8667b60c26daa7fdc35e1aa9387a8c4cf9"},{"file":"design/identification_spec.json","sha256":"8c9eee65856dc0b9b73f1aa411c1fc4f549e5701f24513c662ecb2abfdc7323e","unchanged":true},{"file":"design/did_design.json","sha256":"736ba789a2127148a5b3f28c2cb101e45b8ff03aabc1ec18b0f6d4c094f9aadd"}],"phase":"initial","segment":1,"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-10-13T21:32:37Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:33:08Z","check":"did_design","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":1,"type":"check"},{"action":"approve","at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","phase":"initial","segment":1,"step":"preregister","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","check":"preregistration","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:37:38Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","sha256":"2f1e57d706ddd5116c17b13b3622c87ccaee27948cadb3e7a0253a38ebf535ab"},"outputs":[{"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","sha256":"2f1e57d706ddd5116c17b13b3622c87ccaee27948cadb3e7a0253a38ebf535ab"},{"file":"results/estimation_results.json","sha256":"8c27af2214a37807950b7e467e8cbd1a19b6d69d6788d0ab60b8bf773d87c4b2"}],"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:37:38Z","check":"did_results","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:38:04Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"paper/abstract.tex","sha256":"f5990d731a6ff89df0c7a0a75c3afab5b56d950e7d828e685201dc17e150c04a"},"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-10-13T21:37:38Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:39:39Z","check":"contracts","detail":"paper_draft.tex: 2 construction(s) the researcher does not accept in a paper: \"rather than\" in: Third, we document how fragile inference is in this setting: the number of treated units, the sparse pre-reform data, and the possibility that comparison countries abolished fees without our knowledge limit what a country-level difference-in-differences can establish, and we quantify these limits... (state the positive claim and stop); \"rather than\" in: Uganda initially limited eligibility, Lesotho phased the reform in by grade, and Ghana's capitation grant replaced rather than simply eliminated fees. (state the positive claim and stop). Rewrite each of these sentences without the construction; keep its content","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"accepted":false,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:39:39Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"paper/paper.tex","sha256":"a6f20ad9a75add230fa26c64d538b86c485f40dc2511441717fa5e814f04e3e3"},"outputs":[{"file":"paper/paper.tex","sha256":"a6f20ad9a75add230fa26c64d538b86c485f40dc2511441717fa5e814f04e3e3"},{"file":"results/table_spec.json","sha256":"be3c83ce2c08c30c7aa8851f9057ace43685c26a38dcabcf88a82b13b4e9b9cf"}],"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-10-13T21:37:38Z","stopped_by":"contract violation: paper_draft.tex: 2 construction(s) the researcher does not accept in a paper: \"rather than\" in: Third, we document how fragile inference is in this setting: the number of treated units, the sparse pre-reform data, and the possibility that comparison countries abolished fees without our knowledge limit what a country-level difference-in-differences can establish, and we quantify these limits... (state the positive claim and stop); \"rather than\" in: Uganda initially limited eligibility, Lesotho phased the reform in by grade, and Ghana's capitation grant replaced rather than simply eliminated fees. (state the positive claim and stop). Rewrite each of these sentences without the construction; keep its content","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:39:55Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"paper/paper.tex","sha256":"c039934769e08fc3c9360e8db7d8dca667bf8852044df7998f0a0bceea25c797"},"outputs":[{"file":"paper/paper.tex","sha256":"c039934769e08fc3c9360e8db7d8dca667bf8852044df7998f0a0bceea25c797"},{"file":"results/table_spec.json","sha256":"be3c83ce2c08c30c7aa8851f9057ace43685c26a38dcabcf88a82b13b4e9b9cf","unchanged":true}],"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-10-13T21:39:39Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:39:55Z","check":"preregistration","deviations":[],"enforced":true,"frozen_at":"2026-10-13T21:33:45Z","passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:39:55Z","check":"estimation","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:39:55Z","check":"numbers","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"review","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-10-13T21:40:03Z","check":"citations","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"review","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:42:26Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"reviews/review_writing.md","sha256":"ae4bdfe2cbc8e6b3a77d3100c2aa0e944e2f181b7dd7a389427c293c0eec9fc6"},"phase":"review","segment":2,"specialist":"writing_reviewer","started":"2026-10-13T21:40:03Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:42:47Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"reviews/review_data.md","sha256":"f81ccee8b925fb7b84166f6bf7b254174dbb03b1e7de933bd3537509420a53ff"},"phase":"review","segment":2,"specialist":"data_reviewer","started":"2026-10-13T21:40:03Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:43:36Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"reviews/review_technical.md","sha256":"89a3de30c8d9dcbaf9b1f7981cbc60b796cd0d2345cac1559ad9191d8f9a122f"},"phase":"review","segment":2,"specialist":"technical_reviewer","started":"2026-10-13T21:40:03Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:44:08Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"reviews/review_methods.md","sha256":"9a3631074d00459e7add2708658825ee694671b20b647dfa6ea3fdbf0efbd237"},"phase":"review","segment":2,"specialist":"methods_reviewer","started":"2026-10-13T21:42:47Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:44:13Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"reviews/review_identification.md","sha256":"c2922aaf4ed3694a726e774038a27ba617f66df4fd30097a0acbdc2250aedb03"},"phase":"review","segment":2,"specialist":"identification_reviewer","started":"2026-10-13T21:42:26Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-10-13T21:46:03Z","model":"sonnet","output":{"file":"replication/estimation.py","sha256":"8f304358d2eafa5b120106d957dea63ee96f43df567c69fd1661bca38f73f824"},"phase":"replication","segment":2,"specialist":"replication_packager","started":"2026-10-13T21:44:13Z","type":"specialist"}]}