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rate"},"workflow":[{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T14:58:46Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/paper_plan.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"idea_developer","started":"2026-09-28T14:57:12Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T14:59:47Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-09-28T14:57:12Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T15:02:50Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/literature_review.md","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"0212e09b04a8c0c4354b2020aa92bc4d52b6cf6b3ba269f5cb410a2c65f16501"},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"literature_scanner","started":"2026-09-28T14:57:12Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T15:03:56Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_dictionary.json","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":0,"specialist":"data_architect","started":"2026-09-28T15:02:50Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","phase":"initial","segment":0,"step":"review_design","text":"Follow the approved design exactly. Events: the 31 FOMC announcement dates in the table fomc_announcement_dates; use no other dates. Day 0 is the announcement date; for the Sunday cut of 15 March 2020, day 0 is the next trading day, 16 March 2020. Asset: KBE; market: SPY (Yahoo Finance); XLF as a robustness check. Data tables: kbe_prices, spy_prices, xlf_prices (Yahoo Finance) and dgs2, dfedtaru (FRED). Market model with estimation window [-250,-12] trading days, leaving out days inside other events' windows. Event windows: [-1,+1] and [0,+5]. H1: the mean CAR differs from zero, tested separately for hikes and cuts (two-sided). H2: the CAR is related to the day-0 change in the 2-year Treasury yield (FRED DGS2). Robustness: without the March 2020 emergency cuts and without the March 2023 hike. Open data only (FRED, Yahoo Finance); no CRSP, Compustat or Y-9C.","type":"researcher"},{"action":"edit","at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","file":"event_design.json","phase":"initial","segment":0,"sha256_after":"a2c01232f499a0aa6a83b0d670b0019d47e28b01486085658dce3f92dae55447","sha256_before":"9abb35d559c53539c252235571386ab1f0f3023f915eac5b0921e3b37ca126d1","step":"review_design","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Rewrite paper_plan.md to the approved design in the instructions: one question, H1 and H2 only, KBE against SPY, the 2-year yield (DGS2) as the surprise measure, open data only (no CRSP, no individual bank holding companies).","segment":0,"step":"review_design","target":"idea_developer","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Rewrite data_dictionary.json with the tables kbe_prices, spy_prices, xlf_prices (Yahoo Finance), dgs2 and dfedtaru (FRED), and fomc_announcement_dates. No individual banks.","segment":0,"step":"review_design","target":"data_architect","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Update identification_strategy.md and identification_spec.json to the estimation window [-250,-12] and the event windows [-1,+1] and [0,+5]. Keep event_design.json exactly as it is now: its 31 events, windows and estimation window were set by the researcher. Do not change it.","segment":0,"step":"review_design","target":"identification_strategist","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T23:06:16Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/paper_plan.md","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"7ed1c4a9899a54bc06b17f2d1b195d3e75ddac19a0183e9ad61ec1b1b51879d1"},"phase":"initial","segment":1,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","remark":"Rewrite paper_plan.md to the approved design in the instructions: one question, H1 and H2 only, KBE against SPY, the 2-year yield (DGS2) as the surprise measure, open data only (no CRSP, no individual bank holding companies)."},"specialist":"idea_developer","started":"2026-09-28T23:04:57Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T23:07:11Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_dictionary.json","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"a8f31a3dfa5030e243ec399a5192b18d06bc9b3fb46547f0f505360bd2cf6693"},"phase":"initial","segment":1,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-28T23:06:16Z","remark":"Rewrite data_dictionary.json with the tables kbe_prices, spy_prices, xlf_prices (Yahoo Finance), dgs2 and dfedtaru (FRED), and fomc_announcement_dates. No individual banks."},"specialist":"data_architect","started":"2026-09-28T23:06:16Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T23:07:54Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":1,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-28T23:07:11Z","remark":"Update identification_strategy.md and identification_spec.json to the estimation window [-250,-12] and the event windows [-1,+1] and [0,+5]. Keep event_design.json exactly as it is now: its 31 events, windows and estimation window were set by the researcher. Do not change it."},"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-09-28T23:07:11Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"approve","at":"2026-09-28T23:15:43Z","phase":"initial","segment":1,"step":"review_design","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-09-28T23:19:46Z","check":"contracts","detail":"data.db: data_dictionary.json declares tables that were not loaded — missing from data.db: spy_prices, kbe_prices, xlf_prices, dgs2, dfedtaru. Tables in data.db: fomc_announcement_dates (31 rows). Load each series with `e2er-data ... --table <name>`.","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"accepted":false,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T23:19:46Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false},"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-28T23:15:43Z","stopped_by":"contract violation: data.db: data_dictionary.json declares tables that were not loaded — missing from data.db: spy_prices, kbe_prices, xlf_prices, dgs2, dfedtaru. Tables in data.db: fomc_announcement_dates (31 rows). Load each series with `e2er-data ... --table <name>`.","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-28T23:24:04Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":2,"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-28T23:19:46Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-09-28T23:24:04Z","check":"event_window","detail":"(c) 1 event date(s) are not trading days in spy_prices.date: fomc-2020-03-15 (2020-03-15); (c) 1 event(s) have windows that run past the data (2015-01-02 to 2025-12-30): fomc-2015-12-16; (d) 1 event(s) are on a different day than in the researcher's table: 2020-03-16 in the table, 2020-03-15 in the design; (d) announcement dates moved to the next trading day: 2020-03-15 → 2020-03-16","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-28T23:24:04Z","check":"event_window_gate","detail":"(c) 1 event date(s) are not trading days in spy_prices.date: fomc-2020-03-15 (2020-03-15); (c) 1 event(s) have windows that run past the data (2015-01-02 to 2025-12-30): fomc-2015-12-16; (d) 1 event(s) are on a different day than in the researcher's table: 2020-03-16 in the table, 2020-03-15 in the design","enforced":true,"halted":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":2,"type":"check"},{"action":"edit","at":"2026-09-29T07:24:17Z","file":"event_design.json","phase":"initial","segment":2,"sha256_after":"da30259ba6c5658dd43d974d19f7cdd51d160f33fc5ea3be309d9a198e51e0b0","sha256_before":"a2c01232f499a0aa6a83b0d670b0019d47e28b01486085658dce3f92dae55447","step":"event_window_gate","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T07:24:17Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Load all price and yield series from 2014-01-02 to 2025-12-31 (the approved proposal), so the first event (2015-12-16) has its full estimation window of 250 trading days. Same tables as in data_dictionary.json; data only, no estimation.","segment":2,"step":"event_window_gate","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-09-29T07:27:59Z","check":"contracts","detail":"data_summary.md: data_summary.md must name each loaded table with its actual row count from data.db; missing or wrong for: spy_prices (actual 3017 rows), kbe_prices (actual 3017 rows), xlf_prices (actual 3017 rows)","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":3,"type":"check"},{"accepted":false,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T07:27:59Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false},"phase":"initial","segment":3,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T07:24:17Z","remark":"Load all price and yield series from 2014-01-02 to 2025-12-31 (the approved proposal), so the first event (2015-12-16) has its full estimation window of 250 trading days. Same tables as in data_dictionary.json; data only, no estimation."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-29T07:24:17Z","stopped_by":"contract violation: data_summary.md: data_summary.md must name each loaded table with its actual row count from data.db; missing or wrong for: spy_prices (actual 3017 rows), kbe_prices (actual 3017 rows), xlf_prices (actual 3017 rows)","type":"specialist"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T08:03:47Z","phase":"initial","remark":"In data_summary.md, name each loaded table with its actual row count from data.db (spy_prices 3017 rows; kbe_prices 3017 rows; xlf_prices 3017 rows; dgs2 2765 rows; dfedtaru 2765 rows; fomc_announcement_dates 31 rows). Don't reload or change any data; data only, no estimation.","segment":3,"step":"event_window_gate","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T08:04:09Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":4,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T08:03:48Z","remark":"In data_summary.md, name each loaded table with its actual row count from data.db (spy_prices 3017 rows; kbe_prices 3017 rows; xlf_prices 3017 rows; dgs2 2765 rows; dfedtaru 2765 rows; fomc_announcement_dates 31 rows). Don't reload or change any data; data only, no estimation."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-29T08:03:48Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"approve","at":"2026-09-29T08:38:46Z","phase":"initial","segment":4,"step":"event_window_gate","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-09-29T08:38:46Z","check":"event_window","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":5,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T08:38:46Z","check":"preregistration","detail":"estimation output before the freeze: fig_car_by_direction.pdf, fig_car_distribution.pdf, process_event_study.py","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":5,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T08:38:46Z","check":"preregister","detail":"estimation output already exists before the pre-registration was frozen: fig_car_by_direction.pdf, fig_car_distribution.pdf, process_event_study.py. Send back the specialist that produced it; the outputs are then moved to set_aside/ and recorded, and this check runs again.","enforced":true,"halted":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":5,"type":"check"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T09:15:00Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Your last run produced estimation output before the pre-registration was frozen (fig_car_by_direction.pdf, fig_car_distribution.pdf, process_event_study.py); these are set aside. Load, clean and describe the data only: no abnormal returns, no CARs, no estimation scripts, no result figures. Keep data_summary.md with the actual row counts.","segment":5,"step":"preregister","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T09:18:11Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":6,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T09:15:00Z","remark":"Your last run produced estimation output before the pre-registration was frozen (fig_car_by_direction.pdf, fig_car_distribution.pdf, process_event_study.py); these are set aside. Load, clean and describe the data only: no abnormal returns, no CARs, no estimation scripts, no result figures. Keep data_summary.md with the actual row counts."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-29T09:15:00Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-09-29T10:42:52Z","phase":"initial","segment":6,"step":"preregister","text":"Disclosure: abnormal returns (event_study_results.csv) were computed by the data analyst at 01:23 on 29 September 2026, eight minutes after the design was approved and before the pre-registration was frozen. The file was set aside unread; the design was not changed after it appeared. The pre-registration check did not recognise result files at that time; this was fixed before the freeze.","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T10:42:52Z","phase":"initial","remark":"Align identification_strategy.md and identification_spec.json with the approved H2: the CAR is regressed on the day-0 change in the 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2) as the explanatory variable, separately reported for hikes and cuts where the design says so. Remove forward_guidance_indicator, which is not in the data. Keep event_design.json unchanged.","segment":6,"step":"preregister","target":"identification_strategist","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T10:45:25Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/identification_strategy.md","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"0d74339ae786bb84dc025ffd35a72ccb62243abed053aee05d4223d1f0f6c9c4"},"phase":"initial","segment":7,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T10:42:52Z","remark":"Align identification_strategy.md and identification_spec.json with the approved H2: the CAR is regressed on the day-0 change in the 2-year Treasury yield (DGS2) as the explanatory variable, separately reported for hikes and cuts where the design says so. Remove forward_guidance_indicator, which is not in the data. Keep event_design.json unchanged."},"specialist":"identification_strategist","started":"2026-09-29T10:42:52Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-09-29T10:45:25Z","check":"preregistration","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":7,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T10:45:25Z","check":"preregistration","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":7,"type":"check"},{"action":"edit","at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","file":"preregistration.md","phase":"initial","segment":7,"sha256_after":"5615cb04ba2e3d9ce05f7f87e663e227b5cf1eb31e7779eb874caac0bd4ad198","sha256_before":"4ad98d083c74e40957727b3ff8b6ad7513a8f7ed4ac4f98be4317ab957431f04","step":"preregister","type":"researcher"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","phase":"initial","segment":7,"step":"preregister","text":"The pre-registration as edited at this step governs: H2's primary test is pooled over all 31 events with HC1 standard errors, with hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) as a secondary analysis; H1 uses the cross-sectional standard error. Where identification_spec.json's notes say otherwise (e.g. 'n≈17', 'n≈10', separate regressions only), the pre-registration takes precedence.","type":"researcher"},{"action":"approve","at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","phase":"initial","segment":7,"step":"preregister","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","check":"preregistration","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"initial","segment":8,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T12:50:54Z","check":"contracts","detail":"estimation_results.json: empty JSON ('{}')","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":8,"type":"check"},{"accepted":false,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T12:50:54Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false},"phase":"initial","segment":8,"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","stopped_by":"contract violation: estimation_results.json: empty JSON ('{}')","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-09-29T12:55:28Z","check":"contracts","detail":"estimation_results.json: no estimated regression: estimation_results.json has no non-empty 'coefficients' block (descriptive-only output). Estimate at least one identified specification and write its coefficients/SEs/p-values per the estimation-results-schema — descriptive summaries do not substitute for the estimation.","enforced":true,"passed":false,"phase":"initial","segment":8,"type":"check"},{"accepted":false,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T12:55:28Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false},"phase":"initial","segment":8,"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T12:50:54Z","stopped_by":"contract violation: estimation_results.json: no estimated regression: estimation_results.json has no non-empty 'coefficients' block (descriptive-only output). Estimate at least one identified specification and write its coefficients/SEs/p-values per the estimation-results-schema — descriptive summaries do not substitute for the estimation.","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T12:59:31Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":8,"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T12:55:28Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T13:00:51Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":8,"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T12:59:31Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T13:04:41Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"initial","segment":8,"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T12:59:31Z","type":"specialist"},{"at":"2026-09-29T13:04:41Z","check":"preregistration","deviations":[],"enforced":true,"frozen_at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":8,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T13:04:41Z","check":"estimation","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":8,"type":"check"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T13:30:33Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Use all 31 events from fomc_announcement_dates (20 hikes, 11 cuts), or name and justify any exclusion in estimation_results.json. Compute every p-value from its t-statistic with n-1 degrees of freedom (two-sided). Estimate H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR[-1,+1] regressed on the day-0 change in DGS2, pooled over all events with HC1 standard errors as the primary test, and separately for hikes and cuts as a secondary analysis; add these results to estimation_results.json. Do not change the pre-registered design.","segment":8,"step":"review_draft","target":"econometrics_specialist","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T13:30:33Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Update the draft to the corrected estimation results: 31 events, p-values computed from t with n-1 degrees of freedom, and the H2 results (pooled primary, by direction secondary). Report every number from estimation_results.json; state null results plainly as nulls.","segment":8,"step":"review_draft","target":"paper_drafter","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T13:30:33Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Rewrite the abstract so it reports the main results (H1 by direction and H2) with their numbers from estimation_results.json, not only the plan.","segment":8,"step":"review_draft","target":"abstract_writer","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T13:37:57Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":9,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T13:30:33Z","remark":"Use all 31 events from fomc_announcement_dates (20 hikes, 11 cuts), or name and justify any exclusion in estimation_results.json. Compute every p-value from its t-statistic with n-1 degrees of freedom (two-sided). Estimate H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR[-1,+1] regressed on the day-0 change in DGS2, pooled over all events with HC1 standard errors as the primary test, and separately for hikes and cuts as a secondary analysis; add these results to estimation_results.json. Do not change the pre-registered design."},"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T13:30:33Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T13:41:15Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":9,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T13:37:57Z","remark":"Update the draft to the corrected estimation results: 31 events, p-values computed from t with n-1 degrees of freedom, and the H2 results (pooled primary, by direction secondary). Report every number from estimation_results.json; state null results plainly as nulls."},"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T13:37:57Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T13:41:59Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":9,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T13:41:15Z","remark":"Rewrite the abstract so it reports the main results (H1 by direction and H2) with their numbers from estimation_results.json, not only the plan."},"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T13:41:15Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"The dgs2 table has 2765 rows and no values: the FRED key had a leading space and every request failed. The key is fixed. Reload DGS2 from FRED so that every trading day carries its value, and confirm the non-null count in data_summary.md. If a download fails, stop and say so; never write a table without values. Change nothing else.","segment":9,"step":"review_draft","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Compute every p-value with scipy.stats (t distribution with the df you report) or statsmodels; never hand-written distribution functions. scipy and statsmodels are installed. Give each result entry a hypothesis id (H1, H1a, H2, ...) and its df. Estimate H1 as pre-registered on all 31 events (report any exclusion with its reason). Estimate H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR_i = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i with dDGS2 in basis points (FRED reports percent), HC1 standard errors, pooled over all 31 events as the primary test, hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately as secondary. Report results as they come out, nulls as nulls.","segment":9,"step":"review_draft","target":"econometrics_specialist","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Rewrite the results from the new estimation_results.json only: H1 and H2 as pre-registered, the numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. Keep the demonstration disclaimer.","segment":9,"step":"review_draft","target":"paper_drafter","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results.","segment":9,"step":"review_draft","target":"abstract_writer","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:05:50Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":10,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","remark":"The dgs2 table has 2765 rows and no values: the FRED key had a leading space and every request failed. The key is fixed. Reload DGS2 from FRED so that every trading day carries its value, and confirm the non-null count in data_summary.md. If a download fails, stop and say so; never write a table without values. Change nothing else."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-29T15:05:26Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:12:13Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":10,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:05:50Z","remark":"Compute every p-value with scipy.stats (t distribution with the df you report) or statsmodels; never hand-written distribution functions. scipy and statsmodels are installed. Give each result entry a hypothesis id (H1, H1a, H2, ...) and its df. Estimate H1 as pre-registered on all 31 events (report any exclusion with its reason). Estimate H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR_i = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i with dDGS2 in basis points (FRED reports percent), HC1 standard errors, pooled over all 31 events as the primary test, hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately as secondary. Report results as they come out, nulls as nulls."},"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T15:05:50Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:14:34Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":10,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:12:13Z","remark":"Rewrite the results from the new estimation_results.json only: H1 and H2 as pre-registered, the numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. Keep the demonstration disclaimer."},"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T15:12:13Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:15:57Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":10,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:14:34Z","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results."},"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T15:14:34Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"The previous rerun did not reload anything: data.db table dgs2 still has 2765 rows and 0 values. FRED works now. Run exactly this, which replaces the table: `e2er-data fred series --series-id DGS2 --start 2015-01-01 --end 2025-12-31 --paper-id 9a623c39-87df-4f46-9d6f-d9dcabc84e7a --table dgs2`. Then query data.db and confirm that dgs2 has non-null values on the trading days, and update data_summary.md with the row count and the non-null count. Do not touch the other tables.","segment":10,"step":"review_draft","target":"data_analyst","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Keep H1 as it is now (p-values from scipy are correct). Add H2, which is still missing, exactly as pre-registered, using the reloaded dgs2 table: CAR_i[-1,+1] = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i, with dDGS2 = DGS2(day 0) - DGS2(previous trading day) in basis points (FRED gives percent, multiply by 100), OLS with HC1 standard errors via statsmodels. Primary: pooled over all 31 events (hypothesis id H2). Secondary: hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately. Report beta, HC1 SE, t, p, R2, n and df for each.","segment":10,"step":"review_draft","target":"econometrics_specialist","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Update the results from the new estimation_results.json: H1 as it is, and add H2 as estimated. Numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. Keep the demonstration disclaimer.","segment":10,"step":"review_draft","target":"paper_drafter","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results.","segment":10,"step":"review_draft","target":"abstract_writer","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:18:43Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"data/data_summary.md","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"7deb10dbd872650b491ff7d9bae8871730ab623086d6decea3630c72d4eb5d25"},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":11,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","remark":"The previous rerun did not reload anything: data.db table dgs2 still has 2765 rows and 0 values. FRED works now. Run exactly this, which replaces the table: `e2er-data fred series --series-id DGS2 --start 2015-01-01 --end 2025-12-31 --paper-id 9a623c39-87df-4f46-9d6f-d9dcabc84e7a --table dgs2`. Then query data.db and confirm that dgs2 has non-null values on the trading days, and update data_summary.md with the row count and the non-null count. Do not touch the other tables."},"specialist":"data_analyst","started":"2026-09-29T15:16:56Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:23:30Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":11,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:18:43Z","remark":"Keep H1 as it is now (p-values from scipy are correct). Add H2, which is still missing, exactly as pre-registered, using the reloaded dgs2 table: CAR_i[-1,+1] = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i, with dDGS2 = DGS2(day 0) - DGS2(previous trading day) in basis points (FRED gives percent, multiply by 100), OLS with HC1 standard errors via statsmodels. Primary: pooled over all 31 events (hypothesis id H2). Secondary: hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately. Report beta, HC1 SE, t, p, R2, n and df for each."},"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T15:18:43Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:25:18Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":11,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:23:30Z","remark":"Update the results from the new estimation_results.json: H1 as it is, and add H2 as estimated. Numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. Keep the demonstration disclaimer."},"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T15:23:30Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:26:32Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":11,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:25:18Z","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results."},"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T15:25:18Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","segment":11,"step":"review_draft","text":"The researcher loaded the 2-year Treasury yield with e2er's FRED tool because the data analyst did not, in three attempts: `e2er-data --paper-id 9a623c39-87df-4f46-9d6f-d9dcabc84e7a fred series --series-id DGS2 --start 2015-01-01 --end 2025-12-31 --table dgs2`. data.db table dgs2 now has 2870 rows, 2750 with a value (FRED reports no value on market holidays), 2015-01-01 to 2025-12-31, in percent. The earlier dgs2 table had 2765 rows and no values: a leading space in the FRED key made every request fail, and the analyst's own script wrote the empty rows. No other table was changed.","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"The dgs2 table now has values (see the researcher instruction). Keep H1 exactly as it is. Add H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR_i[-1,+1] = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i, with dDGS2 = DGS2(day 0) - DGS2(previous trading day with a value), in basis points (the table is in percent, multiply by 100); OLS with HC1 standard errors via statsmodels. Primary: pooled over all 31 events, hypothesis id H2. Secondary: hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately. Report beta, HC1 SE, t, p, R2, n and df for each.","segment":11,"step":"review_draft","target":"econometrics_specialist","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Update the results from the new estimation_results.json: H1 as it is, add H2 as estimated. Numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. State in the data section that the researcher loaded DGS2 after the data analyst failed to. Keep the demonstration disclaimer.","segment":11,"step":"review_draft","target":"paper_drafter","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results.","segment":11,"step":"review_draft","target":"abstract_writer","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:30:11Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":12,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","remark":"The dgs2 table now has values (see the researcher instruction). Keep H1 exactly as it is. Add H2 exactly as pre-registered: CAR_i[-1,+1] = alpha + beta * dDGS2_0,i, with dDGS2 = DGS2(day 0) - DGS2(previous trading day with a value), in basis points (the table is in percent, multiply by 100); OLS with HC1 standard errors via statsmodels. Primary: pooled over all 31 events, hypothesis id H2. Secondary: hikes (n=20) and cuts (n=11) separately. Report beta, HC1 SE, t, p, R2, n and df for each."},"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T15:27:26Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:33:16Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":12,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:30:11Z","remark":"Update the results from the new estimation_results.json: H1 as it is, add H2 as estimated. Numbers exactly as estimated, non-significant results stated as such. State in the data section that the researcher loaded DGS2 after the data analyst failed to. Keep the demonstration disclaimer."},"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T15:30:11Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:34:07Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"superseded":true},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":12,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:33:16Z","remark":"State the H1 and H2 results as estimated in the new estimation_results.json, including null results."},"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T15:33:16Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:35:18Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"H1 is correct; keep it unchanged. H2: fit with sm.OLS(y, X).fit(cov_type='HC1', use_t=True) so that p-values come from the t distribution with n-2 residual df (the current fit uses statsmodels' normal default, e.g. cuts p=0.460 where t(9) gives 0.479). Add a df field to every result entry (n-1 for the mean tests, n-2 for the regressions) and a hypothesis field holding the id (H1a, H1b, H2, ...). Change nothing else.","segment":12,"step":"review_draft","target":"econometrics_specialist","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:35:18Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Update the H2 numbers from the new estimation_results.json. Report the pre-registered Table 1 in full: hikes and cuts in both windows, [-1,+1] and [0,+5]. Report the pooled H1 estimates as not pre-registered, including the pooled [0,+5] mean CAR of -1.47% (p=0.022). Delete the sentence saying H2 is to be completed once yield data are obtained; H2 is estimated. Do not claim that announcements do not move bank stocks: state what was estimated, which results are significant and which are not. Keep the demonstration disclaimer.","segment":12,"step":"review_draft","target":"paper_drafter","type":"researcher"},{"action":"send_back","at":"2026-09-29T15:35:18Z","phase":"estimation_gate","remark":"Use the new estimation_results.json. Report the pre-registered results (H1 by direction, H2 pooled) and mention that the pooled [0,+5] estimate, not pre-registered, is -1.47% with p=0.022. No claim that announcements do not affect bank stocks.","segment":12,"step":"review_draft","target":"abstract_writer","type":"researcher"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:42:40Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"design/econometric_spec.md","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"f90b4f6264c9555453c98b7c500fbb9b0b038ba25f3d054aeec5bfa5e6aefc28"},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":13,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:35:18Z","remark":"H1 is correct; keep it unchanged. H2: fit with sm.OLS(y, X).fit(cov_type='HC1', use_t=True) so that p-values come from the t distribution with n-2 residual df (the current fit uses statsmodels' normal default, e.g. cuts p=0.460 where t(9) gives 0.479). Add a df field to every result entry (n-1 for the mean tests, n-2 for the regressions) and a hypothesis field holding the id (H1a, H1b, H2, ...). Change nothing else."},"specialist":"econometrics_specialist","started":"2026-09-29T15:35:18Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:44:58Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/paper.tex","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"0d2d0976485cfa1b1457dd03ed97a61987ebcbd1be90ecddf35a591c91db423d"},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":13,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:42:40Z","remark":"Update the H2 numbers from the new estimation_results.json. Report the pre-registered Table 1 in full: hikes and cuts in both windows, [-1,+1] and [0,+5]. Report the pooled H1 estimates as not pre-registered, including the pooled [0,+5] mean CAR of -1.47% (p=0.022). Delete the sentence saying H2 is to be completed once yield data are obtained; H2 is estimated. Do not claim that announcements do not move bank stocks: state what was estimated, which results are significant and which are not. Keep the demonstration disclaimer."},"specialist":"paper_drafter","started":"2026-09-29T15:42:40Z","type":"specialist"},{"accepted":true,"backend":"claude_code","ended":"2026-09-29T15:46:36Z","model":"claude-haiku-4-5-20251001","output":{"exported":true,"file":"paper/abstract.tex","recorded":false,"sha256_at_export":"2bd0865998158931421a3a517415bc6bc1185d6dc8b56dc742a87ad93ea2df43"},"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":13,"sent_back":{"at":"2026-09-29T15:44:58Z","remark":"Use the new estimation_results.json. Report the pre-registered results (H1 by direction, H2 pooled) and mention that the pooled [0,+5] estimate, not pre-registered, is -1.47% with p=0.022. No claim that announcements do not affect bank stocks."},"specialist":"abstract_writer","started":"2026-09-29T15:44:58Z","type":"specialist"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","phase":"estimation_gate","segment":13,"step":"review_draft","text":"Known issues at approval, left as is because this study is published only to demonstrate e2er: (1) The pre-registered robustness checks (without the March 2020 cuts, without the March 2023 hike, XLF as benchmark) are not reported in the paper. Leftover files tables/robustness_march2020.tex, robustness_march2023.tex and xlf.tex are not part of the paper and contradict the pre-registration (three March 2020 cuts instead of two; sample sizes that do not add up). (2) The abstract calls the [0,+5] analysis not pre-registered; the window was pre-registered by direction, only the pooled estimate was not. (3) The 2-year yield series was loaded by the researcher, not by the data analyst (see the earlier instruction). (4) The H2 estimates changed between reruns once the day-0 change was taken against the previous trading day with a value; the final numbers use that definition. The p-values in estimation_results.json were checked against the t distribution with the stated df before approval.","type":"researcher"},{"action":"approve","at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","phase":"estimation_gate","segment":13,"step":"review_draft","type":"researcher"},{"at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","check":"preregistration","deviations":[],"enforced":true,"frozen_at":"2026-09-29T12:49:29Z","passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":14,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","check":"estimation","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"estimation_gate","segment":14,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","check":"numbers","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"review","segment":14,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T15:47:45Z","check":"citations","enforced":true,"passed":true,"phase":"review","segment":14,"type":"check"},{"at":"2026-09-29T15:49:38Z","check":"contracts","detail":"review_mechanism.md: file not 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corrected the origin; it was built from the FOMC dates file on KBE trading days, in basis points, not loaded from FRED","segment":14,"sha256_after":"a8f31a3dfa5030e243ec399a5192b18d06bc9b3fb46547f0f505360bd2cf6693","sha256_before":"4937f67ab3885315166bd5101facc1ae3665f31cb4a23810f865990c5490f090","step":"after_approval","type":"researcher"},{"action":"edit","at":"2026-10-04T22:19:24Z","file":"data_summary.md","phase":"replication","remark":"dfedtaru: corrected the origin; it was built from the FOMC dates file on KBE trading days, in basis points, not loaded from FRED","segment":14,"sha256_after":"7deb10dbd872650b491ff7d9bae8871730ab623086d6decea3630c72d4eb5d25","sha256_before":"3b0e951ead200fc85fda90fff182d559b9640e8c24b8f53e23801b3883806adb","step":"after_approval","type":"researcher"},{"action":"instruction","at":"2026-10-04T22:19:24Z","phase":"replication","segment":14,"step":"after_approval","text":"Sources recorded on 4 October 2026 by reloading with e2er 0.13.5. 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