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How has the yearly number of magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes worldwide cha...

By Björn Hanneke

How has the yearly number of magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes worldwide changed from 1976 to 2025, and is the Gutenberg–Richter b-value stable across decades once the catalogue's completeness magnitude is taken into account?

Published on e2er.orgDemonstrationVersion 1 · 2026-10-15 · from the command line

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  • ✓citations 12 cite key(s) resolve in refs.bib; snapshot: 12 verified, 0 unverifiable at run time
  • ✓integrity 65 files hash-verified against provenance.json; 392 table cell(s) traced in the derivation graph; 2 change(s) after export recorded as amendments (paper/paper.pdf, paper/paper.tex)
  • ✓numbers 397 table cell(s) are source values at the precision shown; text (not gating): 256 of 259 number(s) are source values, 2 differ from the quantity named nearby, 1 untraced
  • ✓results contract descriptive results (descriptive statistics and distributions) are complete and consistent
  • ✓results from code written by the last run of the shipped script: estimation_results.json ← run_estimation.py
  • ·spec no design/identification_spec.json
  • ✓tables 12 table(s) reproduce byte-identically from the sidecars

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sha256:2b441085959214ee28530b646394f6572c974bddc7701fac121737e2a79488e8
e2er
version 0.17.0 · template descriptive-study
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Claude Sonnet via Claude Code

Data used

Each source the run loaded, as the connector recorded it: what was read and when, the source's terms and the citation it asks for.

ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), U.S. Geological Survey · 5 loads · read 2026-10-14 · USGS-authored or produced data are in the U.S

e2er's connector for it · about this data source

earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1976-01-01 to 1986-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1976_1985 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1976-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1980-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 57883ff43340https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1980-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=1986-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 bb6fdb8d5662
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1986-01-01 to 1996-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1986_1995 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1986-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1988-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 2985e3844e92https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1988-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1991-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 f6370b5bf435https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1991-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1993-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 564903fd967fhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1993-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1996-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 ab51eacb38ff
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1996-01-01 to 2006-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1996_2005 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1996-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1998-07-02T06%3A00%3A00 251527d65d72https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1998-07-02T06%3A00%3A00&endtime=2000-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 780dd4e289a2https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2000-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2003-07-02T18%3A00%3A00 ea75b8d00d21https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2003-07-02T18%3A00%3A00&endtime=2006-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 058480955f15
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 2006-01-01 to 2016-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_2006_2015 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2006-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2008-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 c14aded8e744https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2008-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 917bef145966https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2012-04-01T12%3A00%3A00 0f64a3bdb8bahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2012-04-01T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2013-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 8036aa5263d8https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2013-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2016-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 f7d729fd2609
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 2016-01-01 to 2026-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_2016_2025 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2016-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2018-07-02T06%3A00%3A00 8630e87d9b1ahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2018-07-02T06%3A00%3A00&endtime=2020-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 a1d734977c8fhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2020-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2022-04-02T03%3A00%3A00 90f12f6c4aafhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2022-04-02T03%3A00%3A00&endtime=2023-07-02T18%3A00%3A00 9508fceef77ahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2023-07-02T18%3A00%3A00&endtime=2026-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 0ab0a066d631

Terms USGS-authored or produced data are in the U.S. public domain; USGS asks that proper credit be given. Full terms

Cite U.S. Geological Survey. (2017). Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Catalog. U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MS3QZH

References: 0 from the authors' papers, 10 found on the web, 2 method sources from the template · listed in the dossier

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  • ·Björn Hanneke conceptualization, investigation

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