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How has the yearly number of magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes worldwide cha...

How this study was produced: every step of the run with the file it wrote, and everything the run used, pinned to the exact version. The address of this page is derived from its content: if anything below changed, the address would change.

DossierDemonstrationVersion 1 of the studyOpen the study
Dossiersha256:1b34d9b1cb5efe79ab842cbd89b18478946391b68877e3373bf0777a53c789b1
Dossier as JSON

Paper, data and code of the study

  • Paper
    Not public.

  • Data
    Not public.

  • Code
    Not public.

Run settings

e2er
version 0.16.1 · code at
Template
descriptive-study · iterative
Governance
full
AI backend
claude_code
Models
claude_code/sonnet
Exported
20261015
Sessions
11 sessions · listed with the workflow
Outcome
Completed · 2026-10-14 17:06 UTCe2er's internal quality review: 5.8 of 10
e2er code
no local changes at run time

Input data

SHA-256 of the data files, as recorded in the study's provenance.

4 data files with their hash values
  • ·data/data.db 8b1cfbf8e9d5
  • ·data/data_dictionary.json 8a38e80d0075
  • ·data/data_sources.json a80f3d4878f3
  • ·data/data_summary.md 31c4527b1313

Data used

ANSS Comprehensive Earthquake Catalog (ComCat), U.S. Geological Survey · 5 loads · read 2026-10-14 · USGS-authored or produced data are in the U.S

e2er's connector for it · about this data source

earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1976-01-01 to 1986-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1976_1985 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1976-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1980-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 57883ff43340https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1980-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=1986-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 bb6fdb8d5662
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1986-01-01 to 1996-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1986_1995 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1986-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1988-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 2985e3844e92https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1988-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1991-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 f6370b5bf435https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1991-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1993-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 564903fd967fhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1993-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1996-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 ab51eacb38ff
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 1996-01-01 to 2006-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_1996_2005 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1996-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=1998-07-02T06%3A00%3A00 251527d65d72https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=1998-07-02T06%3A00%3A00&endtime=2000-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 780dd4e289a2https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2000-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2003-07-02T18%3A00%3A00 ea75b8d00d21https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2003-07-02T18%3A00%3A00&endtime=2006-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 058480955f15
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 2006-01-01 to 2016-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_2006_2015 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2006-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2008-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 c14aded8e744https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2008-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 917bef145966https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2011-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2012-04-01T12%3A00%3A00 0f64a3bdb8bahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2012-04-01T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2013-07-02T00%3A00%3A00 8036aa5263d8https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2013-07-02T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2016-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 f7d729fd2609
earthquakes of magnitude 4.5 and above worldwide, 2016-01-01 to 2026-01-01 · read 2026-10-14 · table usgs_raw_2016_2025 https://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2016-01-01T00%3A00%3A00&endtime=2018-07-02T06%3A00%3A00 8630e87d9b1ahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2018-07-02T06%3A00%3A00&endtime=2020-12-31T12%3A00%3A00 a1d734977c8fhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2020-12-31T12%3A00%3A00&endtime=2022-04-02T03%3A00%3A00 90f12f6c4aafhttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2022-04-02T03%3A00%3A00&endtime=2023-07-02T18%3A00%3A00 9508fceef77ahttps://earthquake.usgs.gov/fdsnws/event/1/query?minmagnitude=4.5&format=csv&orderby=time-asc&starttime=2023-07-02T18%3A00%3A00&endtime=2026-01-01T00%3A00%3A00 0ab0a066d631

Terms USGS-authored or produced data are in the U.S. public domain; USGS asks that proper credit be given. Full terms

Cite U.S. Geological Survey. (2017). Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Catalog. U.S. Geological Survey. https://doi.org/10.5066/F7MS3QZH

References (12)

The works the paper cites, as the dossier records them: 0 from the authors' papers, 10 found on the web by the literature search, 2 method sources from the template.

A method source is a work the template credits for a method it uses. e2er adds it to the study's bibliography; the paper cites the ones its study used.

12 references· 0 from the authors' papers, 10 found on the web, 2 method sources from the template
  1. Inference for extreme earthquake magnitudes accounting for a time-varying measurement process (2021) found on the web
  2. Advanced National Seismic System (ANSS) Comprehensive Catalog (2017) found on the web · doi:10.5066/F7MS3QZH
  3. Global risk of big earthquakes has not recently increased (2011) found on the web · doi:10.1073/pnas.1118525109
  4. Minimum Magnitude of Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan (2000) found on the web · doi:10.1785/0119990114
  5. Assessing the Quality of Earthquake Catalogues: Estimating the Magnitude of Completeness and Its Uncertainty (2005) found on the web · doi:10.1785/0120040007
  6. Estimating Magnitude Completeness in Earthquake Catalogs: A Comparative Study of Catalog-based Methods (2025) found on the web · doi:10.1029/2025JB031441
  7. Evaluating the incompleteness magnitude using an unbiased estimate of the $b$ value (2023) found on the web
  8. The standard error of the magnitude-frequency b value (1982) found on the web · doi:10.1785/bssa0720051677
  9. Minimum sample size for detection of Gutenberg-Richter's b-value (2014) found on the web
  10. Sunda-arc seismicity: continuing increase of high-magnitude earthquakes since 2004 (2021) found on the web
  11. The Proof and Measurement of Association between Two Things (1904) method source · doi:10.2307/1412159
  12. Sample Quantiles in Statistical Packages (1996) method source · doi:10.1080/00031305.1996.10473566

e2er's internal quality review

Six reviewer specialists each score the draft from one angle, on a scale of 0 to 10. The score in the middle is the weighted average of these scores, with the weights in the table.

data 6.0 literature 5.3 methods 5.0 plausibility 6.5 writing 6.0 5.8 of 10

5.8 of 10

Each reviewer's score and weight
ReviewerScoreWeight
data6.01.25
literature5.30.75
methods5.01.5
plausibility6.51.25
writing6.00.75

Rounds of improvement (2)

The run worked on its draft in rounds. After each round a ceiling check decided whether another round would help, whether the study needed a change of approach, or whether it was ready for review. The steps of each round are marked with the round in the workflow below.

  1. Round 1 · Estimation, Data and descriptive analysis

    The figure check failed. The econometrics fixes (count threshold, Mw-only common-threshold b, Mc floor censoring flag, list layout) must run first. Then the data analyst re-points and verifies the figure spec before paper_drafter is dispatched.

    Decision after round 1another roundIteration 1 has produced a full draft with real data (277,946 events, decade means, b-values at decade-specific Mc and common threshold), so improvement has not stalled; this is the first pass and there is no multi-iteration trajectory showing diminishing returns. The draft is still missing the checks the plan promised: figure_data re-read after econometrics, sensitivity to Mc method, magnitude type and declustering, and a test of whether the decade b-value differences exceed sampling error (Utsu test or bootstrap). The draft also leaves a `% src:` placeholder in the introduction. Targeted section_writer and analysis work can close these without a pivot, so continue to the next iteration and keep the pivot in reserve.

  2. Round 2 · Estimation, Data and descriptive analysis

    The researcher's pending fixes come first. The econometrics_specialist corrects the count threshold and the Mw-only and Mc-censoring handling, and adds the list-form magtype shares. The data_analyst then re-verifies figure_spec.json against the new results before the figure check and drafting. paper_drafter and revisor are not allowed on iteration 2+, so section_writer will handle any follow-up text changes.

    Decision after round 2ready for reviewThe draft is already coherent and complete for a descriptive study: abstract reports decade-level counts, magnitude-type shifts, and b-values at both decade-specific and common Mc, and the conclusions are appropriately hedged (catalogue change cannot be separated from physical change). The data, quality, and figure checks are in the template's pipeline, and the remaining gaps (polish, citation verification, wording) are handled better by the review panel and the automatic patch_revisor than by a pivot with new upstream work. A further strategist-driven iteration is unlikely to yield more than 5% qualitative improvement.

Workflow (66 steps)

The run in order, from the run's own record. The run was carried out in 11 sessions. How to read it

A session is one e2er process, from a start or a resume to the next stop, and each session names the e2er version and commit its steps ran on. Each specialist step shows the model, the file it wrote and the file's hash value (SHA-256). Where the run did not record the hash value, the step says so: the last step that wrote a file shows the hash value of the file at export, and earlier steps that wrote the same file are marked as superseded. Checks that stopped a step are listed where they happened: 13 here. Steps taken by the researcher (14 here) are marked with a grey dot. Stops, pauses and failures of the run are marked with a ring, at their time.

27 researcher decisions and stops · 14 actions · 13 stops · 0 approved deviations · 0 failures

All 27, by session
Session 1 of 11 2026-10-14 16:04–16:07 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 5 steps · literature scanner, idea developer, data architect · 2 researcher actions · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design)
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:04
  2. Run: method sources · 16:04
  3. Initial
  4. literature scanner · sonnet · 16:04–16:05 design/literature_review.md c3fc7362bf37
  5. Run: attempt usage · 16:05
  6. idea developer · sonnet · 16:04–16:05 design/paper_plan.md a158d57f51f9
  7. Run: attempt usage · 16:05
  8. data architect · sonnet · 16:05–16:06 data/data_dictionary.json 4761b1131cbe
  9. Run: attempt usage · 16:06
  10. Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design) · 16:06
  11. Researcher gave an instruction for review design · 16:07 Scope for this descriptive study (replaces the larger plan where they differ): (1) Counts: yearly counts of M>=5 with ComCat's preferred magnitude (one preferred magnitude per event; report the mix of magnitude types by decade), decade means, and counts at ONE common threshold equal to the largest decade Mc. Describe a change in counts only if the decade means show it; aftershocks are kept and the paper says so. (2) b-value: Aki-Utsu maximum likelihood with the bin correction (dM = 0.1); standard error by Shi & Bolt (1982): sigma_b = 2.30 b^2 sqrt(sum (M_i - mean M)^2 / (N (N-1))) - b/sqrt(N) is Aki's, label it so if reported; bootstrap 95% intervals. Mc per decade by maximum curvature (+0.2) and goodness-of-fit (90/95%), estimated from events down to M4.5. Pairwise decade comparisons by Utsu's test, reported exactly as computed (say which pairs overlap and which do not). (3) Checks: Mw-family-only sample and shallow (depth <= 70 km) sample. (4) Drop: ETAS/Poisson simulations, all three declustering methods, regional exclusions, 5-year and sliding windows, mb->Mw conversions, synthetic validation, LOESS, CUSUM/Pettitt. (5) Cite the catalogue as USGS ComCat (doi 10.5066/F7MS3QZH) for the data; cite only references that resolve in literature.bib; no JEL line. (6) A difference between the M>=5 and M>=5.5 counts is not a detection share; incompleteness below Mc lowers the estimated b, it does not raise it.
  12. Researcher sent back data architect · 16:07 Load ComCat from M>=4.5, not M>=4.0: Mc is about 5 in every decade, so events down to 4.5 are enough to estimate it, and M>=4.0 roughly doubles the load (worldwide M4 is far from complete and mostly regional-network ML/md events). Change the five load commands to --min-magnitude 4.5, rename eq_clean_m40 to eq_clean_m45 and drop the n_m40 column; keep everything else (no --event-type so the type counts exist, the ComCat citation, the GCMT 'unavailable' entry). In eq_bvalue_windows keep only the five decades (no sliding windows) and Mc rules maxc+0.2, gft90/95 and the common threshold (largest decade Mc); drop declustering from known_limits wording ('aftershocks are included and not removed').
Session 2 of 11 2026-10-14 16:07–16:08 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 2 steps · data architect · 1 researcher action · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design)
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:07
  2. Initial
  3. data architect · sonnet · 16:07–16:08 Run again after the researcher sent it back data/data_dictionary.json b2ccf74f7efd
  4. Run: attempt usage · 16:08
  5. Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design) · 16:08
  6. Researcher sent back literature scanner · 16:08 The library lacks every core methods reference, and several of the 29 keys are off-topic (emerson1983statistical, jagla2013a, maslov2012derivation, serino2010gutenbergrichter, guglielmi*). Search (e2er-lit search, which reaches OpenAlex/Crossref) and record only what resolves: Aki 1965 (b-value MLE), Utsu 1965, Shi & Bolt 1982 (BSSA 72(5) 1677-1687, b-value standard error), Wiemer & Wyss 2000 (BSSA, Mc), Woessner & Wiemer 2005 (BSSA 95(2), doi 10.1785/0120040007), Utsu 1992 or 1999 (b-value comparison test), Shearer & Stark 2012 (PNAS, doi 10.1073/pnas.1118525109), Michael 2011 (GRL). Whatever does not resolve stays out of literature.bib and is listed as unverified. Do not add declustering/ETAS references; the analysis drops them. Rewrite literature_review.md's tiers accordingly.
Session 3 of 11 2026-10-14 16:08–16:10 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 3 steps · literature scanner · 2 researcher actions · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design)
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:08
  2. Initial
  3. literature scanner · sonnet · 16:08–16:09 Run again after the researcher sent it back design/literature_review.md ccf32f7ea753
  4. Run: attempt usage · 16:09
  5. Run stopped for the researcher's review (review design) · 16:09
  6. Researcher gave an instruction for review design · 16:10 Do not cite wong2011oxidation (off-topic; a wrong DOI guess) nor the off-topic keys emerson1983statistical, jagla2013a, maslov2012derivation, serino2010gutenbergrichter, guglielmi2019global, guglielmi2021dependence. Aki 1965 and Utsu 1965/1999 are unverified: name the estimator and test in words, do not cite them by key. Note: OpenAlex lists only the first author for woessner2005assessing (Woessner & Wiemer) and wiemer2000minimum (Wiemer & Wyss); write the author pairs correctly in the text.
  7. Researcher approved review design · 16:10
Session 4 of 11 2026-10-14 16:10–16:43 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 10 steps · data analyst · 2 researcher actions · 4 checks failed · Run: attempt usage
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:10
  2. Initial
  3. data analyst · sonnet · 16:10–16:40 data/data_summary.md 7d1c1fe85709results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677results/figure_spec.json c72e3dee6e19 Claude Code timed out after 1800s (limit 1800s)
  4. Run: attempt usage · 16:40
  5. Check: contracts failed, step stopped
    What the check founddata.db: data_dictionary.json declares tables that were not loaded — loaded without values: eq_bvalue_windows.mc: 0 of 5 non-null (needs 90%); eq_bvalue_windows.n_above_mc: 0 of 5 non-null (needs 90%); eq_bvalue_windows.mean_mag_above_mc: 0 of 5 non-null (needs 90%). Tables in data.db: eq_annual_counts (50 rows), eq_bvalue_windows (5 rows), eq_clean_m45 (277946 rows), usgs_raw_1976_1985 (37121 rows), usgs_raw_1986_1995 (42573 rows), usgs_raw_1996_2005 (50984 rows), usgs_raw_2006_2015 (73394 rows), usgs_raw_2016_2025 (74436 rows). Load each series with `e2er-data ... --table <name>`; a table whose values are NULL was not loaded (check the connector's error, e.g. an API key).
  6. data analyst · sonnet · 16:40–16:41 data/data_summary.md ea4ab0f0319cresults/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json c72e3dee6e19 (unchanged by this step)
  7. Run: attempt usage · 16:41
  8. data analyst · sonnet · 16:41–16:41 data/data_summary.md 514d03fa69c7results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json c72e3dee6e19 (unchanged by this step)
  9. Run: attempt usage · 16:41
  10. Check: data quality failed, step stopped
    What the check foundtable usgs_raw_1976_1985: time starts at 1976-01-01T00:04:05.400Z, after the declared coverage from 1976-01-01; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time starts at 1986-01-01T04:37:24.880Z, after the declared coverage from 1986-01-01; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time starts at 1996-01-01T01:34:16.000Z, after the declared coverage from 1996-01-01; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time starts at 2006-01-01T03:21:39.210Z, after the declared coverage from 2006-01-01; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time starts at 2016-01-01T02:00:39.950Z, after the declared coverage from 2016-01-01
  11. data analyst · sonnet · 16:41–16:42 data/data_summary.md 9d753408f1d1results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json c72e3dee6e19 (unchanged by this step)
  12. Run: attempt usage · 16:42
  13. Check: data quality failed, step stopped
    What the check foundtable usgs_raw_1976_1985: time starts at 1976-01-01T00:04:05.400Z, after the declared coverage from 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1976_1985: time ends at 1985-12-31T22:56:33.100Z, before the declared coverage to 1985-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time starts at 1986-01-01T04:37:24.880Z, after the declared coverage from 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time ends at 1995-12-31T22:42:33.550Z, before the declared coverage to 1995-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time starts at 1996-01-01T01:34:16.000Z, after the declared coverage from 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time ends at 2005-12-31T19:08:45.530Z, before the declared coverage to 2005-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time starts at 2006-01-01T03:21:39.210Z, after the declared coverage from 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time ends at 2015-12-31T23:39:28.940Z, before the declared coverage to 2015-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time starts at 2016-01-01T02:00:39.950Z, after the declared coverage from 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time ends at 2025-12-31T23:04:28.213Z, before the declared coverage to 2025-12-31T23:59:59Z
  14. Check: data quality gate failed, run stopped
    What the check foundtable usgs_raw_1976_1985: time starts at 1976-01-01T00:04:05.400Z, after the declared coverage from 1976-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1976_1985: time ends at 1985-12-31T22:56:33.100Z, before the declared coverage to 1985-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time starts at 1986-01-01T04:37:24.880Z, after the declared coverage from 1986-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time ends at 1995-12-31T22:42:33.550Z, before the declared coverage to 1995-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time starts at 1996-01-01T01:34:16.000Z, after the declared coverage from 1996-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time ends at 2005-12-31T19:08:45.530Z, before the declared coverage to 2005-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time starts at 2006-01-01T03:21:39.210Z, after the declared coverage from 2006-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time ends at 2015-12-31T23:39:28.940Z, before the declared coverage to 2015-12-31T23:59:59Z; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time starts at 2016-01-01T02:00:39.950Z, after the declared coverage from 2016-01-01T00:00:00Z; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time ends at 2025-12-31T23:04:28.213Z, before the declared coverage to 2025-12-31T23:59:59Z
  15. Researcher edited data_dictionary.json · 16:43 0f6df320674a → 68311a84bb1a
  16. Researcher approved data quality gate · 16:43
Session 5 of 11 2026-10-14 16:43 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 4 steps · 2 researcher actions · 2 checks failed · Run: backend identity
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:43
  2. Initial
  3. Check: data quality failed, step stopped
    What the check foundtable usgs_raw_1976_1985: time starts at 1976-01-01T00:04:05.400Z, after the declared coverage from 1976-01-01; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time starts at 1986-01-01T04:37:24.880Z, after the declared coverage from 1986-01-01; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time starts at 1996-01-01T01:34:16.000Z, after the declared coverage from 1996-01-01; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time starts at 2006-01-01T03:21:39.210Z, after the declared coverage from 2006-01-01; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time starts at 2016-01-01T02:00:39.950Z, after the declared coverage from 2016-01-01
  4. Check: data quality gate failed, run stopped
    What the check foundtable usgs_raw_1976_1985: time starts at 1976-01-01T00:04:05.400Z, after the declared coverage from 1976-01-01; table usgs_raw_1986_1995: time starts at 1986-01-01T04:37:24.880Z, after the declared coverage from 1986-01-01; table usgs_raw_1996_2005: time starts at 1996-01-01T01:34:16.000Z, after the declared coverage from 1996-01-01; table usgs_raw_2006_2015: time starts at 2006-01-01T03:21:39.210Z, after the declared coverage from 2006-01-01; table usgs_raw_2016_2025: time starts at 2016-01-01T02:00:39.950Z, after the declared coverage from 2016-01-01
  5. Researcher edited data_dictionary.json · 16:43 68311a84bb1a → 8a38e80d0075
  6. Researcher approved data quality gate · 16:43
Session 6 of 11 2026-10-14 16:43–16:46 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 6 steps · data analyst, econometrics specialist · 1 researcher action · 2 checks failed · Run: attempt usage
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:43
  2. Initial
  3. Check: data quality passed
  4. data analyst · sonnet · 16:43–16:44 data/data_summary.md 31c4527b1313results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json e4b9832fa55d
  5. Run: attempt usage · 16:44
  6. econometrics specialist · sonnet · 16:44–16:46 design/econometric_spec.md 6a52776ed3bcresults/estimation_results.json 25a804205221
  7. Check: figure data failed, step stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf names no 'source' (a data.db table and columns, or a results path)
  8. Check: figures before draft failed, run stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf names no 'source' (a data.db table and columns, or a results path)
  9. Run: attempt usage · 16:46
  10. Researcher sent back econometrics specialist · 16:46 Three fixes in run_estimation.py, then run it so it writes estimation_results.json (no number typed by hand): (1) Counts must use the same threshold as the data table: eq_annual_counts.n_m50 counts mag >= 5.0 (83,469 events, decade means 1,595.9/1,617.4/1,390.6/1,992.8/1,750.2), but the script counts the 0.1-rounded magnitude (mi >= 50), i.e. mag >= 4.95 (83,543 events, mean 1,670.86). Count on the published magnitude (mag >= threshold, e.g. 5.0, 6.0, 7.0, and the common threshold) so the results match eq_annual_counts and the figure; keep the 0.1 binning only for Mc and b. (2) The Mw-family-only b at the common threshold 4.9 (b 0.51-0.80) is not a b-value of a complete sample: moment magnitudes are only assigned to larger events and that sample's own Mc is 5.2-5.6. Drop b_common_threshold and its pair tests for the Mw-only check; keep b at its own Mc. (3) Record that Mc = 4.5 (maxc, gft90, gft95 for 1996-2025) equals the load floor (M>=4.5): the estimate is censored there, Mc may be lower; add a field saying so. No other method change.
Session 7 of 11 2026-10-14 16:46–16:48 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 4 steps · econometrics specialist · 1 researcher action · 2 checks failed · Run: attempt usage
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:46
  2. Initial
  3. econometrics specialist · sonnet · 16:46–16:47 Run again after the researcher sent it back design/econometric_spec.md 08fae36a5119results/estimation_results.json 1e8bfae8a363
  4. Check: figure data failed, step stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf names no 'source' (a data.db table and columns, or a results path)
  5. Check: figures before draft failed, run stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf names no 'source' (a data.db table and columns, or a results path)
  6. Run: attempt usage · 16:47
  7. Researcher sent back data analyst · 16:48 figure_spec.json only: fig_magtype_mix.pdf has no source. Give it a re-readable source - the shares are in estimation_results.json (magtype_mix_m5_by_decade, 'Mw family' share per decade) - so the figure check can re-read them; the values must equal those shares. Note the econometrics specialist re-ran run_estimation.py: M>=5 counts now use mag >= 5.0 (83,469 events), matching eq_annual_counts; check that every figure value still matches. Change nothing else.
Session 8 of 11 2026-10-14 16:48–16:49 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 5 steps · data analyst · 1 researcher action · 2 checks failed · Run: attempt usage
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:48
  2. Initial
  3. data analyst · sonnet · 16:48–16:48 Run again after the researcher sent it back data/data_summary.md 31c4527b1313 (unchanged by this step)results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json 4f0e3757e444
  4. Run: attempt usage · 16:48
  5. Check: data quality passed
  6. Check: figure data failed, step stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf: estimation_results.json has no list of entries at magtype_mix_m5_by_decade
  7. Check: figures before draft failed, run stopped fig_magtype_mix.pdf: estimation_results.json has no list of entries at magtype_mix_m5_by_decade
  8. Researcher sent back econometrics specialist · 16:49 Layout only, no number changes: the figure check reads results only from a LIST of entries. Have run_estimation.py also write magtype_mix_m5_by_decade_list = [{"decade": "1976-1985", "mw_family_share": <share>}, ...] (the same five Mw-family shares as magtype_mix_m5_by_decade), run the script, and point fig_magtype_mix.pdf's source in figure_spec.json at it: {"results": "magtype_mix_m5_by_decade_list", "fields": {"categories": "decade", "values": "mw_family_share"}}.
Session 9 of 11 2026-10-14 16:49–16:58 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 13 steps · econometrics specialist, abstract writer, paper drafter and 1 more · 1 researcher action · 1 check failed · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review draft)
  1. Run: backend identity · 16:49
Initial 6 steps · econometrics specialist, abstract writer, paper drafter · 16:49–16:55 · 1 check failed · Run: attempt usage
  1. econometrics specialist · sonnet · 16:49–16:49 Run again after the researcher sent it back design/econometric_spec.md 08fae36a5119 (unchanged by this step)results/estimation_results.json 5c9d6e0b6259
  2. Check: figure data passed
  3. Run: attempt usage · 16:49
  4. abstract writer · sonnet · 16:49–16:49 paper/abstract.tex 49ab20b8356c
  5. Run: attempt usage · 16:49
  6. Check: contracts failed, step stopped
    What the check foundpaper_draft.tex: 3 construction(s) the researcher does not accept in a paper: "Against this background" in: Against this background, this paper asks how the yearly number of earthquakes of magnitude 5 and larger worldwide changed from 1976 to 2025, and whether the $b$-value is stable across decades once the completeness magnitude ($M_c$) of the catalogue is taken into account. (pivot to the contribution directly (for instance: To keep these quantities apart, we propose ...)); "not X but Y" in: The precision of the estimate depends on the number of events \citep{kamer2014minimum}, which is large in every decade of our sample; the practical limit is therefore not sampling error in the usual sense but the assumptions behind it, chiefly that events are independent and the sample homogeneous. (state the positive claim and stop); "not X but Y" in: Since the two samples are estimated at different thresholds, the estimates are not directly comparable, but the contrast is consistent with the interpretation that the recent rise in the full-sample $b$-value is tied to events between about 4.7 and 5.2, where the catalogue relies on body-wave mag... (state the positive claim and stop). Rewrite each of these sentences without the construction; keep its content
  7. paper drafter · sonnet · 16:49–16:55 paper/paper.tex 9db2d154496cresults/table_spec.json 20bf0d3a4859
  8. Run: attempt usage · 16:55
  9. paper drafter · sonnet · 16:55–16:55 paper/paper.tex 56c2c84bf103results/table_spec.json 20bf0d3a4859 (unchanged by this step)
  10. Run: attempt usage · 16:55
Iterative 4 steps · data analyst, econometrics specialist · 16:55–16:57 · Run: attempt usage
  1. data analyst · sonnet · 16:55–16:56 Round 1 data/data_summary.md 31c4527b1313 (unchanged by this step)results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json 99184c14aed4 (unchanged by this step)
  2. Run: attempt usage · 16:56
  3. econometrics specialist · sonnet · 16:56–16:56 Round 1 design/econometric_spec.md 08fae36a5119 (unchanged by this step)results/estimation_results.json 5c9d6e0b6259 (unchanged by this step)
  4. Run: attempt usage · 16:56
  5. data analyst · sonnet · 16:56–16:57 Round 2 data/data_summary.md 31c4527b1313 (unchanged by this step)results/summary_statistics.json 70ab63a6a677 (unchanged by this step)results/figure_spec.json 99184c14aed4 (unchanged by this step)
  6. Run: attempt usage · 16:57
  7. econometrics specialist · sonnet · 16:57–16:57 Round 2 design/econometric_spec.md 08fae36a5119 (unchanged by this step)results/estimation_results.json 5c9d6e0b6259 (unchanged by this step)
  8. Run: attempt usage · 16:57
Estimation gate 1 step · 16:57
  1. Check: estimation passed
Figure gate 2 steps · 16:57–16:58 · 1 researcher action · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review draft)
  1. Check: figure data passed
  2. Run stopped for the researcher's review (review draft) · 16:57
  3. Researcher sent back paper drafter · 16:58 Seven corrections, no new analysis: (1) Data section: 'published to one decimal' is false - 909 events carry two-decimal magnitudes (96 of them between 4.9 and 5.0). Say counts use the published magnitude and Mc/b use magnitudes binned to 0.1. (2) Counts at 4.9: delete the sentence attributing the difference to the M>=5 counts to events 'incompletely recorded in the first decades'. The extra events are simply those between 4.9 and 5.0, which the Gutenberg-Richter relation makes numerous, and our own Mc (max curvature +0.2) is at most 4.9 in every decade. Report the rank correlation 0.51 at 4.9 vs 0.27 at 5.0 without an explanation. (3) Pairwise tests at maxc+0.2: 'rejects equality for eight of ten pairs' is misleading. Write: the likelihood-ratio test rejects equality at the 1 percent level in nine of ten pairs; the exception is 2006-2015 vs 2016-2025 (2.4, p = 0.119); bootstrap intervals overlap for that pair and for 1976-1985 vs 2006-2015 (7.6, p = 0.006). Make the abstracts say 'nine of ten pairs'. (4) Common threshold: every decade uses the same threshold, not 'the same events'. (5) Delete 'the size of the differences, between 0.1 and 0.3, is small relative to the changes in magnitude-type composition' (b-units and type shares cannot be compared), and say 'all full-sample variants' (the Mw-only estimates for the two latest decades are 0.921 and 0.995). (6) Do not lean toward the magnitude-procedure reading: in Results drop 'consistent with the interpretation that the recent rise ... is tied to events between about 4.7 and 5.2', and in the Discussion drop 'which is what we observe'. The Mw-only sample has Mc 5.2-5.6 and far fewer events, so the contrast cannot separate a physical change from a catalogue change; state both as open. (7) Delete 'Each of these is a scope condition and not a flaw of the description: it bounds what the record can say.'
Session 10 of 11 2026-10-14 16:58–16:59 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 3 steps · paper drafter · 1 researcher action · Run stopped for the researcher's review (review draft)
  1. Figure gate
  2. Check: figure data passed
  3. Run: backend identity · 16:58
  4. paper drafter · sonnet · 16:58–16:59 Run again after the researcher sent it back paper/paper.tex b8fad2f40ff6results/table_spec.json 46f12d93db87
  5. Run: attempt usage · 16:59
  6. Run stopped for the researcher's review (review draft) · 16:59
  7. Researcher approved review draft · 16:59
Session 11 of 11 2026-10-14 16:59–17:06 UTC · e2er 0.16.1 · 11 steps · literature reviewer, writing reviewer, data reviewer and 4 more · Run: attempt usage
Estimation gate 1 step · 16:59
  1. Check: estimation passed
Figure gate 1 step · 16:59 · Run: backend identity
  1. Check: figure data passed
  2. Run: backend identity · 16:59
Review 7 steps · literature reviewer, writing reviewer, data reviewer and 2 more · 17:00–17:04 · Run: attempt usage
  1. Check: numbers passed
  2. Self-critique · 17:00 0 findings, 0 serious
  3. Check: citations passed
  4. literature reviewer · sonnet · 17:00–17:01 reviews/review_literature.md 4ebd2629a869
  5. Run: attempt usage · 17:01
  6. writing reviewer · sonnet · 17:00–17:02 reviews/review_writing.md 6fb7371b4459
  7. Run: attempt usage · 17:02
  8. data reviewer · sonnet · 17:00–17:03 reviews/review_data.md 1f03891fed3d
  9. Run: attempt usage · 17:03
  10. methods reviewer · sonnet · 17:01–17:04 reviews/review_methods.md 446dbffe1462
  11. Run: attempt usage · 17:04
  12. plausibility reviewer · sonnet · 17:02–17:04 reviews/review_plausibility.md 6ec69c4ad549
  13. Run: attempt usage · 17:04
Revision 1 step · patch revisor · 17:04–17:06 · Run: attempt usage
  1. patch revisor · sonnet · 17:04–17:06 misc/paper_draft.tex.edits.json 1184c1f17270
  2. Run: attempt usage · 17:06
Replication 1 step · replication packager · 17:06–17:06 · Run: attempt usage
  1. replication packager · sonnet · 17:06–17:06 replication/estimation.py 8fa489f086f7
  2. Run: attempt usage · 17:06

The run ended: completed · 2026-10-14 17:06 UTC

What it was built with (58)

Each part with its authors and the version used. e2er parts are pinned by git's content hash of their file at the commit above; follow a link to read that exact version.

Templates (1)

· by e2er authors
TemplateByPinned version
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Specialists (14)

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Skills (42)

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Connectors (1)

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Sources of the template “descriptive-study”

The work the template of this run is based on, draws from or cites, as the template file names it. A source says where an idea came from; it does not say its authors endorse this study.

Methods

John D. Emerson and Graham A. Colditz. Use of Statistical Analysis in The New England Journal of Medicine. New England Journal of Medicine 309(12), 709-713.

David Freedman and Persi Diaconis. On the histogram as a density estimator: L2 theory. Zeitschrift für Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie und Verwandte Gebiete 57(4), 453-476.

Rob J. Hyndman and Yanan Fan. Sample Quantiles in Statistical Packages. The American Statistician 50(4), 361-365.

Charles Spearman. The Proof and Measurement of Association between Two Things. The American Journal of Psychology 15(1), 72-101.

Roderick Little and Donald Rubin. Statistical Analysis with Missing Data (3rd edition). Wiley.

Hadley Wickham. Tidy Data. Journal of Statistical Software 59(10).

Cite e2er with this dossier

A paper produced with e2er gives one reference for e2er: this dossier. It credits everyone listed above.

@misc{e2er-1b34d9b1cb5efe79,
  title        = {e2er dossier for "How has the yearly number of magnitude 5 and larger earthquakes worldwide cha..."},
  author       = {{e2er}},
  year         = {2026},
  howpublished = {\url{https://e2er.org/d/1b34d9b1cb5efe79}},
  note         = {Workflow, templates, specialists, skills, connectors and models used, pinned by content hash. Dossier sha256:1b34d9b1cb5efe79ab842cbd89b18478946391b68877e3373bf0777a53c789b1}
}