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No Cash Flows, New Owners: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Origins of Co-movement

By Björn Hanneke

Did the January 2024 approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs change the co-movement between Bitcoin returns and US equity returns?

Published on e2er.orgDemonstrationVersion 4 · 2026-10-22 · from the command line

Read the paper (PDF) Browse the files Dossier 1606581708e0909b data private · code public (github.com/bhanneke/E2ER-project/tree/25a30912064ce70bb86f6810ff166c60485fa1f7/examples/showcase/code)

Paper, data and code

Checks

Only the check by e2er.org ran outside the author's control. The other results are reported by the author: e2er verify on their machine, and a GitHub Actions workflow in their repository, which GitHub vouches for as coming from that repository and commit.

Checked by e2er.org

  • ✓e2er.content_id provenance.json at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091 hashes to the study's content id
  • ✓e2er.files 73 of 73 files match their fingerprints at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091
  • ✓e2er.package spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er (1.3 MB) has the recorded size and SHA-256, its fingerprint is the recorded one, and its provenance.json is the one of this version

at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091 · 2026-10-22

Reported by the author's GitHub Actions workflow

No GitHub Actions run has reported.

Reported by the author's own check

  • ✓citations 33 cite key(s) resolve in refs.bib; snapshot: 33 verified, 0 unverifiable at run time
  • ✓integrity 73 files hash-verified against provenance.json; 346 table cell(s) traced in the derivation graph; 17 change(s) after export recorded as amendments (paper/abstract.tex, paper/paper.pdf, paper/paper.tex); the abstract rewritten after export by e2er's abstract step (paper/abstract.tex, paper/paper.pdf, paper/paper.tex, report.html)
  • ✓numbers 290 table cell(s) are source values at the precision shown; 48 coefficient(s) checked, 0 inconsistent; text (not gating): 244 of 245 number(s) are source values, 1 differ from the quantity named nearby, 0 untraced
  • ·results from code not checked: the run predates output records
  • ✓spec estimation implements the declared identification
  • ✓tables 13 table(s) reproduce byte-identically from the sidecars; 2 not renderer-produced (rawcontrast.tex, sumstats.tex)

e2er verify on the author's machine, at publish

What was published

Files
github.com/bhanneke/E2ER-project/tree/25a30912064ce70bb86f6810ff166c60485fa1f7/examples/showcase
38 named with their SHA-256 fingerprint
References
33 of 33 resolved
AI calls
18
Content id
sha256:7bdaf4fb0b1b6d80857a6026f93e82984035e5fab5cac9b8dfb431611318a565
as the author declared it; e2er.org's check found provenance.json at the commit hashes to it
e2er
version 0.13.6 · template empirical
AI
Claude Sonnet 4.5 via Claude Code
Licence
MIT

Data used

Each source the run loaded, as the connector recorded it: what was read and when, the source's terms and the citation it asks for.

Yahoo Finance (through yfinance) · 37 loads · read 2026-10-05 · personal use only
BTC-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_BTC_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BTC-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTC-USD.
ETH-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_ETH_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ETH-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ETH-USD.
SOL-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_SOL_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, SOL-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SOL-USD.
XRP-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_XRP_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, XRP-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XRP-USD.
LTC-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_LTC_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, LTC-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LTC-USD.
BNB-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_BNB_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BNB-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BNB-USD.
ADA-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_ADA_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ADA-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ADA-USD.
DOGE-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_DOGE_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, DOGE-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOGE-USD.
BCH-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_BCH_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BCH-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BCH-USD.
LINK-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_LINK_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, LINK-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LINK-USD.
AVAX-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_AVAX_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, AVAX-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AVAX-USD.
DOT-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_DOT_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, DOT-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DOT-USD.
XLM-USD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_XLM_USD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, XLM-USD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLM-USD.
SPY daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_SPY.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, SPY daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SPY.
QQQ daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_QQQ.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, QQQ daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/QQQ.
IWM daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_IWM.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, IWM daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IWM.
ARKK daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_ARKK.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ARKK daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARKK.
XLK daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_XLK.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, XLK daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XLK.
ACWX daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_ACWX.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ACWX daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ACWX.
GLD daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_GLD.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, GLD daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GLD.
SLV daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_SLV.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, SLV daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/SLV.
^GSPC daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_GSPC.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ^GSPC daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^GSPC.
^VIX daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_VIX.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ^VIX daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^VIX.
^MOVE daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_MOVE.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ^MOVE daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^MOVE.
^TNX daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_TNX.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ^TNX daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/^TNX.
DX-Y.NYB daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/px_DXY.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, DX-Y.NYB daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/DX-Y.NYB.
IBIT daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_IBIT.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, IBIT daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/IBIT.
FBTC daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_FBTC.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, FBTC daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/FBTC.
GBTC daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_GBTC.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, GBTC daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/GBTC.
ARKB daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_ARKB.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, ARKB daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ARKB.
BITB daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_BITB.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BITB daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BITB.
BTCO daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_BTCO.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BTCO daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTCO.
EZBC daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_EZBC.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, EZBC daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/EZBC.
BRRR daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_BRRR.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BRRR daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRRR.
HODL daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_HODL.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, HODL daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/HODL.
BTCW daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_BTCW.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BTCW daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BTCW.
BITO daily prices · read 2026-10-05 · data/etf_BITO.csv · source page Cite: Yahoo Finance, BITO daily prices, retrieved through yfinance on 2026-10-05, https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/BITO.

Terms Yahoo's terms of use apply. The yfinance project notes that Yahoo's finance data are intended for personal use only; yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo. Full terms

The source publishes no citation format; e2er records this one.

Study package

Everything a reader needs to check and rerun the study on their own computer, in one file kept by the authors on GitHub, as a file of a release (version 4). e2er.org records where it is and its fingerprint; it does not keep the file.

Download the study package (.e2er)spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er · 1.3 MB

SHA-256
9dd4d53fc50a36b5c5bc3189efb6a31b5a622d771e2ddb806c69a6adfa553bac
Fingerprint
sha256:06820857210c2e140c3c9b0b785aaa8dd8d23a1cbba9912d5e5f356bbab3ead4
over the list of every file in the package with its SHA-256; e2er verify compares it with this page
Added
on 2026-11-01, after this version was published; e2er.org checked the file against the version first

With e2er installed (install; the review guide explains each step on Linux, macOS and Windows):

e2er fetch https://e2er.org/bhanneke/spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement
e2er inspect spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er
e2er verify spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er --against https://e2er.org/bhanneke/spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement
e2er reproduce spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er
  • e2er fetch downloads the file and checks its size and SHA-256 against this page; it runs nothing.
  • e2er inspect shows what the file holds: title, authors, data, size and fingerprint.
  • e2er verify checks every file, the numbers and the tables, and compares the package with this page.
  • e2er reproduce runs the study’s code again and compares the results; it runs the code in a Docker container, with no network and no folder of yours.

Versions

Each version was published with its own dossier. This page shows version 4; the dossiers of earlier versions stay at their addresses and name the version that replaced them.

Built with

The template, specialists, skills and connectors this version used, as its dossier names them, with the people credited for each.

Template (1) · by e2er authors
Specialists (16) · by e2er authors
Skills (39) · by e2er authors
Connector (1) · by e2er authors

Authors

  • ·Björn Hanneke conceptualization, investigation

Discussion

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