No Cash Flows, New Owners: Spot Bitcoin ETFs and the Origins of Co-movement
By Björn Hanneke
Did the January 2024 approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs change the co-movement between Bitcoin returns and US equity returns?
Read the paper (PDF) Browse the files Dossier 1606581708e0909b data private · code public (github.com/bhanneke/E2ER-project/tree/25a30912064ce70bb86f6810ff166c60485fa1f7/examples/showcase/code)
Paper, data and code
- PaperPublic · Read the paper (PDF)
- DataNot public.
The data come from Yahoo Finance. Its terms allow personal use only, so the data stay with the source.Get the data from the source (its terms), or load them yourself with
e2er-data yfinance.The study's code reloads them:
code/get_data.py. - CodePublic · Get the code
Checks
Only the check by e2er.org ran outside the author's control. The other results are reported by the author: e2er verify on their machine, and a GitHub Actions workflow in their repository, which GitHub vouches for as coming from that repository and commit.
Checked by e2er.org
- ✓e2er.content_id provenance.json at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091 hashes to the study's content id
- ✓e2er.files 73 of 73 files match their fingerprints at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091
- ✓e2er.package spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er (1.3 MB) has the recorded size and SHA-256, its fingerprint is the recorded one, and its provenance.json is the one of this version
at bhanneke/E2ER-project@25a3091 · 2026-10-22
Reported by the author's GitHub Actions workflow
No GitHub Actions run has reported.
Reported by the author's own check
- ✓citations 33 cite key(s) resolve in refs.bib; snapshot: 33 verified, 0 unverifiable at run time
- ✓integrity 73 files hash-verified against provenance.json; 346 table cell(s) traced in the derivation graph; 17 change(s) after export recorded as amendments (paper/abstract.tex, paper/paper.pdf, paper/paper.tex); the abstract rewritten after export by e2er's abstract step (paper/abstract.tex, paper/paper.pdf, paper/paper.tex, report.html)
- ✓numbers 290 table cell(s) are source values at the precision shown; 48 coefficient(s) checked, 0 inconsistent; text (not gating): 244 of 245 number(s) are source values, 1 differ from the quantity named nearby, 0 untraced
- ·results from code not checked: the run predates output records
- ✓spec estimation implements the declared identification
- ✓tables 13 table(s) reproduce byte-identically from the sidecars; 2 not renderer-produced (rawcontrast.tex, sumstats.tex)
e2er verify on the author's machine, at publish
What was published
- Files
- github.com/bhanneke/E2ER-project/tree/25a30912064ce70bb86f6810ff166c60485fa1f7/examples/showcase
38 named with their SHA-256 fingerprint - References
- 33 of 33 resolved
- AI calls
- 18
- Content id
- sha256:7bdaf4fb0b1b6d80857a6026f93e82984035e5fab5cac9b8dfb431611318a565
as the author declared it; e2er.org's check found provenance.json at the commit hashes to it - e2er
- version 0.13.6 · template empirical
- AI
- Claude Sonnet 4.5 via Claude Code
- Licence
- MIT
Data used
Each source the run loaded, as the connector recorded it: what was read and when, the source's terms and the citation it asks for.
Yahoo Finance (through yfinance) · 37 loads · read 2026-10-05 · personal use only
e2er's connector for it · about this data source
Terms Yahoo's terms of use apply. The yfinance project notes that Yahoo's finance data are intended for personal use only; yfinance is not affiliated with Yahoo. Full terms
The source publishes no citation format; e2er records this one.
Study package
Everything a reader needs to check and rerun the study on their own computer, in one file kept by the authors on GitHub, as a file of a release (version 4). e2er.org records where it is and its fingerprint; it does not keep the file.
Download the study package (.e2er)spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er · 1.3 MB
- SHA-256
- 9dd4d53fc50a36b5c5bc3189efb6a31b5a622d771e2ddb806c69a6adfa553bac
- Fingerprint
- sha256:06820857210c2e140c3c9b0b785aaa8dd8d23a1cbba9912d5e5f356bbab3ead4
over the list of every file in the package with its SHA-256; e2er verify compares it with this page - Added
- on 2026-11-01, after this version was published; e2er.org checked the file against the version first
With e2er installed (install; the review guide explains each step on Linux, macOS and Windows):
e2er fetch https://e2er.org/bhanneke/spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement e2er inspect spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er e2er verify spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er --against https://e2er.org/bhanneke/spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement e2er reproduce spot-bitcoin-etf-comovement-v4.e2er
- e2er fetch downloads the file and checks its size and SHA-256 against this page; it runs nothing.
- e2er inspect shows what the file holds: title, authors, data, size and fingerprint.
- e2er verify checks every file, the numbers and the tables, and compares the package with this page.
- e2er reproduce runs the study’s code again and compares the results; it runs the code in a Docker container, with no network and no folder of yours.
Versions
Each version was published with its own dossier. This page shows version 4; the dossiers of earlier versions stay at their addresses and name the version that replaced them.
- ·Version 4 · 2026-10-22 · dossier 1606581708e0909b (shown here)
- ·Version 3 · 2026-10-21 · dossier 057929c26221ef80
- ·Version 2 · 2026-10-05 · dossier 37aca410ed871da5
- ·Version 1 · 2026-09-26 · dossier c46711b0dc073e96
Built with
The template, specialists, skills and connectors this version used, as its dossier names them, with the people credited for each.
Template (1) · by e2er authors
- ·Template · Empirical study · by e2er authors
Specialists (16) · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Abstract · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Data and descriptive analysis · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Data plan · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Review of the data · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Estimation · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Research plan · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Review of the identification · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Identification strategy · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Review of the literature · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Literature review · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Review of the mechanism · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Paper draft · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Targeted corrections · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Replication package · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Technical review · by e2er authors
- ·Specialist · Review of the writing · by e2er authors
Skills (39) · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Economist Persona · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Researcher Persona · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · `identification_spec.json` — Identification Strategist Sidecar · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Judge and Examiner Designs · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Natural Experiments: Taxonomy and Evaluation · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Sensitivity Analysis for Causal Inference · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Allium queries via the gatekeeper CLI · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Allium Developer-tier API (when SQL Explorer is unavailable) · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Blockchain Data Skill · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Data Cleaning Best Practices for Economics Research · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Crypto & DeFi Data Skill · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Figure Specification Format · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · FRED via `e2er-data fred` · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Querying the local data warehouse with `e2er-data query` · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · `summary_statistics.json` — Data Analyst Sidecar · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Table Specification Format · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Yahoo Finance via `e2er-data yfinance` · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Difference-in-Differences · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · `estimation_results.json` — Econometrics Specialist Sidecar · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Financial Event Studies · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Instrumental Variables Estimation · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Panel Data Methods · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Market Microstructure · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Anti-Slop Writing Standards · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Creative Research Ideation · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Identification Strategy Reasoning · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Novelty and Contribution Positioning · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Consistency Check · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Data Review Checklist for Empirical Economics · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Referee Simulation · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Technical Review · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Academic Writing Review Checklist · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Synthesis Worker — Context Builder Mode · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Replication Package · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Writing Abstracts for Economics Papers · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Citing Numbers by JSON Source Key · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Paper Structure for Empirical Research · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Personal Academic Writing Style · by e2er authors
- ·Skill · Scoped Revision — what the targeted corrections step writes · by e2er authors
Connector (1) · by e2er authors
- ·Connector · Claude Code · by e2er authors
Authors
- ·Björn Hanneke conceptualization, investigation
Withdraw a version
Only you see this, as the author. In the first 24 hours after publishing, withdrawing removes the version completely: its page, dossier, files and checks. Later, the version stays at its address with your reason in place of its content. Withdrawing the only version withdraws the study.
Discussion
Loading…